Fact Sheet

Increased warming: Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the warmest years in global surface temperature since 1850. The rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. The average global temperature went up by about 0.74°C during the 20th Century with the warming affecting land more than ocean areas.
There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: Carbon dioxide is the dominant contributor to current climate change and its atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial value of 278 parts-per million (ppm) to 379 in 2005.
More water, but not everywhere: More precipitation has been observed in the eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia in recent decades. But the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia have experienced drying. More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s.
Sea level is rising: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is highly confident that the rate of observed sea level rise increased from the 19th to 20th century, and the total 20th century rise is estimated to be 0.17 metre. Geological observations indicate that sea level rise over the previous 2,000 years was far less. The average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3,000 metres.
Less snow cover: Snow cover is decreasing in most regions, particularly in spring. The maximum extent of frozen ground in the winter/spring season has decreased by about 7 per cent in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, and on average rivers that freeze do so some 5.8 days later than a century ago and their ice breaks up 6.5 days earlier.
Glaciers are melting: Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined, on average, in both hemispheres, and have contributed to sea level rise by 0.77 millimetres a year from 1993 to 2003. Shrinkage of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have contributed to a sea level rise of 0.4 millimetres a year between 1993 and 2003.
Arctic is warming: Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years.
Satellite data since 1978 show that the average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 per cent per decade.
New Projections Indicate Faster Warming…
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above the current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
The degree of warming depends on the degree of emissions: If carbon dioxide concentrations were stabilized at 550 ppm — double the pre-industrial levels — the average warming expected would likely be in the range of 2-4.5°C, with the best estimate of 3°C, or 5.4°F. A warming of 0.2°C per decade is expected for each of the next two decades for a range of scenarios that do not include deliberate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Other greenhouse gases contribute to warming and if their combined effect were equivalent to a carbon dioxide level of 650 ppm, the global climate would “likely” warm by 3.6°C, while a level of 750 ppm would produce warming of 4.3°C.
Projections depend on factors such as economic growth, population, new technologies and other factors.
…and Greater Consequences
Warmer global temperatures are already causing profound changes in many of the earth’s natural systems. Approximately 20-30 per cent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C.
A temperature increase of 3°C during this century would have largely negative consequences for biodiversity ecosystems that produce essential goods and services, such as water and food supply.
As a result of warmer temperatures, springtime events are occurring earlier, such as increased run-off and peak dis-charge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers, “greening” of vegetation and migration and egg-laying by birds. More animal and plant species have also been observed shifting toward higher latitudes.
More precipitation in the high latitudes: Increases in precipitation are very likely in the high latitudes while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions.
Model based estimates for sea-level rise due to ocean expansion and glacier melt by the end of the century (compared to 1989-1999 levels) have narrowed from previous assessments to 18-58 cm. However, larger values cannot be ruled out if recently observed movements of ice sheets were to increase as temperature rises.
Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to contribute to sea level rise into the 22nd century and the ice sheet could face complete elimination if global average warming of 1.9-4.6°C is maintained for a millennium. In that case, sea level would rise by up to 7 metres.

This paper is listed as a resource on the FSN forum of the FAO .

Food Insecurity often comes into focus on the occurrence of starvation deaths and malnutrition on a large scale as has often been witnessed in several states of India. A false sense of security may often prevail in regions which do not witness starvation deaths or serious malnutrition. Kashmir is one such case. Food insecurity does prevail in Kashmir but for entirely different reasons than the other states and places in India. While extreme poverty may be a major determinant in the other cases, production and absorption factors are more important in case of Kashmir although the fact remains that even in terms of poverty, our state is also on the brink.

The standard evaluation methodology for food insecurity is based on the three A’s. Availability, Access and Absorption or ‘AAA’ – Availability (production factors, i.e. agricultural production, its determinants and availability to households) ,Access (household and individual’s access to food and factors determining it, i.e. poverty and literacy levels, vulnerability of populations, etc.), and Absorption (ability to absorb food – health conditions, availability of potable water and sanitation). The lacunae in these three major factors gets reflected in the form of ‘Food Insecurity Outcome’ (child malnutrition, child mortality, low BMI among adults, etc.), which are taken as manifestation of food insecurity.

Availability

The per capita income at constant(1993-94) prices was a mere 7810 rupees in 2002-03 in contrast with an All India average of Rs.11013. Mere non-occurrence of starvation deaths cannot and should not be taken as the sole measure of food security. While the food insecurity in some states/ regions is overtly miserable, places like Kashmir which are predominantly importers of food are on the brink and are facing a perineal risk of slipping into a situation of insecurity especially in the context of the recent developments in food supply and demand position. That Kashmir has been food insecure in winter is evidenced from our preservation of vegetables in dried form. The practice was shunned because of the supply glut from the nearby states.

The sole land bridge with the rest of India in the form of national Highway 1A itself makes us extremely vulnerable affecting availability to a large extent. Many national surveys and food security maps have classified us as secure in terms of food security. I, for one, have basic issues with this assertion. These surveys and reports seem to be ignoring the dynamics of supply, demand, topography and the unique mix of these factors in respect of Kashmir valley.

The availability of locally produced food is on a serious decline. The production of food grains as well as vegetables has shown a steady decline. This mainly because of change in land use patterns. Paddy land is increasingly finding unchecked use for residential constructions, small industrial units, brick kilns, motor vehicle workshops and railway line construction. Vegetable production in srinagar city in traditional vegetable gardens has almost become extinct. In villages too, the vegetable production is on a serious decline.While improved technology has boosted livestock production in the form of increased milk production, poultry production and egg production yet the explosive population growth, shrinking grazing lands, reduced access to pastures and above all a rising demand from improved economic status has meant a widening demand-supply gap. While the sheep husbandry sector has improved a lot, but misplaced priorities on wool production has left the ever increasing mutton demand far from fulfilled. Lack of incentives on the pattern of those offered in other states has meant that farming is no longer viable and attractive. Multiple increase in land prices due to several factors including the advent of railways and migratory patterns has rendered the sale of land more luring than toiling in the fields. Add to this the obsession and lure of government jobs and we find even the unskilled people who would be apt for farming opting for the safety of a salaried job. Even the increase in livestock production has more to do with intensive production rather than any increased fodder production or pasture management.At present the valley of Kashmir is severely dependent on imports for meeting almost every basic food need. While horticultural production may have increased manifold , the revenue gain in exports is offset to a large extent by the imports of food items. Lack of irrigation facilities led many a farmer to shift from paddy cultivation to fruit growing. This also added to our woes. Unmindful of the ground realities and real needs subsidies were offered on setting up industrial units. Mostly those whose raw material is imported. This has again proved to be a bitter failure due to inadequate electricity availability, shorter work hours, long winter period and inadequate communication facilities . While food grains, vegetables and livestock produce have a source and sink both within the valley, horticulture is subservient to the whims and fancies of traders in markets outside of our control.Moreover there is a tremendous competition with fruits from as far as the USA entering the market along with existing players like Himachal Pradesh. This is not to in any way discredit the contribution and potential of that sector. However, food security must not be compromised at any cost whatsoever.

The state is currently importing

14.66 lakh Sheep and goat per annum in 2005-06 up from 5.47 lakh in 1973-74.

11.18 lakh quintals of different types of fodder up from 1.07 lakh quintals in 1973-74.

89.43 lakh quintals of grains and pulses up from 18.78 lakh quintals in 1973-74.

23.57 lakh quintals of vegetables up from 2.06 lakh quintals in 1973-74.

19.47 lakh quintals of fruits up from 1.37 lakh quintals in 1973-74.

The population of the state almost doubled in the corresponding period. While a multi factorial analysis of the demand factors would be more appropriate to determine the causes of rise in demand, one thing is clear, demand has clearly outpaced supply by miles mainly due to shrinking local production.

The rationed population through Public Distribution System is 86.23 lakh. Import of food grain by Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution Department is 6.48 lakh tonnes (2005-06) out of which the off take From Govt Depots is 6.24 Lakh Tonnes(05-06) thus reinforcing the view that the majority population is dependent on PDS.

Access: The access of individuals and households to food , which is mostly imported or rationed through the public distribution system is severely constrained in several parts of the valley. While local vegetable production is still being practised in rural areas , it hardly suffices for the needs of the land owning families. As we move towards hilly areas the availability of vegetables gets severely constrained and food grain supply in plains of rural Kashmir now barely suffices the needs of the grower families and most rural families now depend on the public distribution system and private traders for their needs. Given the fact that the severe appreciation in food prices, with inflation hovering around 12%, supplies are likely to tighten and become much more dearer for the marginalised population to afford.

One of the factors used to determine the level of access to food of the population is the literacy rate. Jammu and Kashmir is one of the most educationally backward states in India. As per 2001 census, the literacy rate among the population age 7 years and above is 54% compared with 65% for All India. The male literacy rate is 66% and the female is 42% in 2001 census. These are still lower than the All India rate of 76% for males and 54% for females.

While more than 50% of the state’s population is literate (Census 2001), the literacy levels among rural females is comparatively much less than the state average and the rural males. This makes the rural female population more vulnerable to food and nutrition insecurity.The population in hilly areas especially the far flung areas with volatile connectivity is more at risk . While starvation deaths may not be a common occurrence in Kashmir, the fact remains that the nutritional status of people in such areas is at risk.

Absorption:

Jammu and Kashmir is one of the most educationally backward states in India. As per 2001 census, the literacy rate among the population age 7 years and above is 54% compared with 65% for all India. The male literacy rate is 66% and the female is 42% in 2001 census. These are still lower than the all India rate of 76% for males and 54% for females.

The state in general and the valley in particular has a poor infrastructure in respect of health services. The major hospitals are located in cities and these too are bursting at their seams and are totally un equipped to handle the mass flow of patients. This is reflected in poor patient care and low quality services being provided to those availing these services who belong mainly to the lower social strata. This despite he best efforts of the staff in these hospitals. Private sector is yet to make its presence felt in this sector. This seriously affects the health status of people and as a consequence puts them at a serious risk.

Neonatal, postneonatal, infant, child, and under-five mortality rates(Deaths per 1000) for the five-year period preceding the survey, India, 2005-06 ( Source : NFHS-2005, MOHFW, GOI)

i) Neo Natal Mortality Rate 29.8

ii) Post Neo-Natal Mortality 14.9

iii) Infant Mortality Rate 44.7

iv) Child Mortality 6.8

v) Under-Five Mortality 51.2

vi) Perinatal mortality rate 37.6

Neonatal mortality: The probability of dying in the first month of life

Postneonatal mortality: The probability of dying after the first month of life but before the first birthday

Infant mortality : The probability of dying before the first birthday

Child mortality : The probability of dying between the first and fifth birthdays

Under-five mortality : The probability of dying before the fifth birthday.

According to the survey:

1. Only 66 % of children aged 12-23 months received all recommended vaccines.

2. Only 18 % of children received any services from ICDS.

3. About 58 % of children aged upto 5 years are suffering from mild to severe anemia .

4. 52 % of women and 19.5% men also suffer the same .

5. 25% of house holds’s consuming salt with inadequate quantities of iodine.

6. 5.3% women use any kind of tobacco.

7. 52.7% men use any kind of tobacco.

8. Only 4.1 % women reported with any contact with a govt health worker.

References:

1. National Family Health Survey, NFHS-3, 2005-06, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

2. Digest of Statistics, Government of Jammu and Kashmir , 2005.

3. Census of India, 2001.

Theme of World Food Day,2008

World Food Security, the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy

Credits: FAO

Posted By: Dr Shuja ul Rehman

Climate change affects everyone. But the worst hit will be hundreds of millions of small-scale farmers, fishers and forest-dependent people who are already vulnerable and food insecure. By affecting the availability of land, water and biodiversity, and the price of food, the rising demand for biofuels produced from food crops also has an impact on the poor.

World Food Day provides an occasion to once again highlight the plight of 862 million undernourished people in the world. Most of them live in rural areas where their main source of income is the agricultural sector. Progress towards the World Food Summit goal of reducing their numbers by half by 2015 has already stalled. Global warming and the biofuel boom are now threatening to push the number of hungry even higher in the decades to come.

Adapting to climate change

Climate change will affect the suitability of land for different types of crops, livestock, fish and pasture. It will also have an impact on the health and productivity of forests, the incidence of pests and diseases, biodiversity and ecosystems. Changes in temperatures and precipitation as well as more frequent extreme weather are expected to result in crop and livestock production shortfalls and other asset losses, thereby threatening food production but also access, stability and utilization of food resources.

Many adaptation measures will focus on strengthening measures already in place, such as sustainable and ecological farming practices, early warning systems, systems to identify climate change “hot spots” and disaster risk management. Others will focus on rural investments to reduce the long-term effects of short-term climate variability on food security, through crop insurance and incentives that encourage farmers to adopt better agricultural and land use practices.

Agriculture should contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions through such measures as reduction of deforestation, improved forest conservation and management, better control of wildfires, agro-forestry for food or energy, soil carbon sequestration, restoring land through controlled grazing, improving nutrition for ruminant livestock like cattle, more efficient management of livestock waste including biogas recovery, and other strategies that conserve soil and water resources by improving their quality, availability and efficiency of use. The use of biofuels as a solution to reduce carbon emissions and to become more independent from fossil fuels has crucial implications for food security as well as for current and future land use .

Land

Climate change threatens to uproot many rural communities. For example, rising sea levels may force many communities in low-lying coastal areas and river deltas in developing countries to move to higher ground. Similarly, increasingly frequent droughts brought on by climate change may leave farmers and pastoralists who rely on rainfall to raise their crops and livestock in conflict over land and water. This displacement of people is likely to result in competition between migrants and established communities for access to land. Reconciling diverse land use needs presents daunting challenges for governments at all levels. In cases where land rights are informal and different customary land tenure systems coexist, governments will need to work closely with local communities to establish fair and equitable systems of land tenure and develop mechanisms for resolving disputes. For many displaced communities, it may be impossible to maintain their farming or pastoral traditions. Land tenure policies designed to facilitate resettlement will need to be incorporated into a broader programme that provides opportunities for the displaced to earn livelihoods outside the agricultural sector.

Water

As a consequence of climate change, farmers will face growing unpredictability and variability in water supplies and increasing frequency of droughts and floods. Hardest hit will be rainfed agriculture – which covers 96 percent of all cultivated land in sub-Saharan Africa, 87 percent in South America and 61 percent in Asia. In marginal semi-arid zones with prolonged dry seasons, the risk of crop failures will increase. Where stability of production cannot be assured, people will be forced to migrate.

But irrigation in large river basins and deltas are also at risk from a combination of reduced runoff, salinity (Indus), increased flooding and sea level rise (Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yangtse), and urban and industrial pollution. These stresses on some of the prime productive land will reduce the agricultural output, biodiversity and the natural ability of ecosystems to recover – with possible negative impacts on millions of farmers and consumers across the world as food supply becomes progressively constrained. Areas projected to experience lower precipitation will need to improve water storage, management and productivity. Large irrigation schemes will needto adapt to changes in water supply regimes and support will be needed for small-scale, field-based water control measures.

Biodiversity

The 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment estimates that by the end of this century, climate change will be the main cause of biodiversity loss. But as climate changes, the value of biodiversity for food and agriculture will increase. Genetic resources are the living material that local communities, researchers and breeders use to adapt food and agricultural production to changing needs. Maintaining and using this reservoir of genetic diversity will be the foundation for coping with climate change.

Transboundary pests and diseases

While there is clear evidence that climate change is altering the distribution of animal and plant pests and diseases, the full effects are difficult to predict. Changes in temperature, moisture and atmospheric gases can fuel growth and generation rates of plants, fungi and insects, altering the interactions between pests, their natural enemies and their hosts. Changes in land cover, such as deforestation or desertification, can make remaining plants and animals increasingly vulnerable to pests and diseases. New farming practices, different crops and animal breeds, and integrated pest management principles must be developed to help stem the spread of pests. Countries may need to consider the introduction of biological control agents or new pest- or disease-resistant crops and breeds.

Governments also need to strengthen national animal and plant health services as a top priority.

Fisheries and aquaculture

Impacts of climate change will affect fisheries- and aquaculture-dependent people as production and marketing costs increase, buying power and exports decrease and dangers from harsher weather conditions rise. Small fishing communities in some areas will face greater uncertainty as availability, access, stability and use of aquatic food and supplies diminish and as work opportunities dwindle. Now accounting for 45 percent of global seafood consumption, aquaculture production will continue rising to meet future demand. Here, climate change offers new opportunities. Production in warmer regions will likely increase because of better growth rates, a long growing season and the availability of new fish farming areas where it was once too cold. Therefore, aquaculture development opportunities will increase in particular in tropical and sub-tropical regions, such as in Africa and Latin America.

Managing the risk

Much can be done now and in the next few decades to lessen the worst effects of global warming. These measures include:

• developing climate and climate impact models that give a better understanding of how climate change may affect farming and forestry at a local level in order to be better prepared;

• diversifying livelihoods and adapting agricultural, fishing and forestry practices by encouraging better water management, soil conservation, resilient crops and trees;

• improving and expanding weather and climate forecasting;

• improving monitoring and early warning systems;

• developing disaster risk management.

To better adapt to climate change impacts:

• land use plans, food security programmes, fisheries and forestry policies must all be adjusted.

• cost/benefit analyses are needed to take account of climate change risks for irrigation or coastal protection.

• farmers’ best practices should be promoted through capacity building and networking.

• implementation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action on climate change needs to be supported.

• contingency plans need to cover new and evolving risk scenarios.

FAO hosted the High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy from 3 to 5 June 2008. One hundred eighty-one (181) countries participated – 43 were represented by their Head of State or Government and 100 by high-level Ministers. Overall, 5 159 people attended – 1300 of them were journalists covering the event. The Summit has concluded with the adoption by acclamation of a Declaration on World Food Security. “It is essential to address the question of how to increase the resilience of present food production systems to challenges posed by climate change… We urge governments to assign appropriate priority to the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, in order to create opportunities to enable the world’s smallholder farmers and fishers, including indigenous people, in particular vulnerable areas, to participate in, and benefit fromfinancial mechanisms and investment flows to support climate change adaptation, mitigation and technology development, transfer and dissemination… We call upon relevant inter-governmental organizations, including FAO, within their mandates and areas of expertise, with the involvement of national governments, partnerships, the private sector, and civil society, to foster a coherent, effective and results-oriented international dialogue on biofuels in the context of food security and sustainable development needs.”

CARE FOR MOTHER NATURE – WE OWE IT TO HER

By Dr.SHUJA UL REHMAN & MANZOOR AHMAD